Market Analysis
GOLD
Gold prices have fallen to test the lower boundary of the consolidation zone. While this might appear to signal a trend shift to some, we maintain our bullish bias for now. The MACD shows a steady rise in selling volume, and the RSI remains neutral, suggesting continued consolidation unless a decisive break below support occurs. A clean break could trigger further downside, but barring a significant crash, we expect prices to remain range-bound or resume upward.
On the fundamental side, optimism surrounding US-China trade talks has dented demand for safe-haven assets like gold. Scheduled meetings this weekend have raised hopes for progress. In addition, the announcement of a US-UK trade agreement has helped ease global trade concerns. The Federal Reserve held rates steady, as expected, but flagged rising risks tied to both inflation and unemployment, reinforcing its cautious stance. Chair Powell emphasized that the Fed is not planning preemptive rate cuts despite tariff-related risks, further reducing gold’s appeal.
SILVER
Silver is mirroring gold’s trajectory, with waning momentum and MACD showing increased bearish volume. The RSI is indecisive, and price action remains near key support structures. Consolidation appears likely in the short term, but any positive developments for the dollar or trade talks this weekend could push prices lower. We remain watchful for confirmation.
DXY (U.S. Dollar Index)
The Dollar has risen significantly on renewed optimism around trade deal progress and the Fed’s firm stance on maintaining current rates. As previously warned, the market is shifting toward a more hawkish outlook. The MACD and RSI both reflect strong bullish momentum, and price action has broken previous consolidation patterns, suggesting further upside in the near term.
GBP/USD
The Pound has dropped sharply following the US-UK trade agreement and interest rate decisions. Although some BoE members supported a more aggressive rate cut, the overall tone signals concern over the UK’s economic trajectory. The MACD is trending lower, and the RSI is steady in its downward bias, pointing to further dollar strength in this pair.
AUD/USD
The Aussie has entered a stronger bearish phase after breaking below the key level of 0.64086. The MACD is clearly reflecting increased bearish volume, while the RSI confirms selling pressure. Although there are some exaggerated signals, the overall momentum is firmly to the downside. Market expectations have decisively shifted to bearish.
NZD/USD
The Kiwi has also shifted to a bearish outlook, breaking below 0.59400. The MACD and RSI both show strong bearish momentum and volume, and price action has turned decisively lower. While the move was sharp, it aligns with the broader trend reversal we anticipated upon the breakdown of key support.
EUR/USD
The Euro has finally broken below its consolidation range, and we are now seeing accelerating selling pressure. This move confirms a bearish shift, and we will be looking for more short opportunities in the coming sessions.
USD/JPY
The Yen has weakened sharply, primarily due to renewed Dollar strength. The MACD and RSI confirm this bullish dollar bias, with rising volume and momentum. We are now favoring long positions on USD/JPY as bullish conditions strengthen.
USD/CHF
The Franc has also lost ground against the Dollar, following a cooling of global trade war fears. Despite ongoing concerns around global security, focus has returned to how trade deals will impact economic outlooks. The MACD and RSI both show increased bullish momentum, and we expect further upside in this market.
USD/CAD
The CAD has fallen sharply, breaking out of its previous consolidation squeeze. The shift in U.S. trade policy—especially renewed openness toward China—has strengthened the Dollar, pulling the CAD lower. The MACD and RSI reflect steady bullish sentiment for the Dollar, and we expect this bullish trend to continue in the near term.
COT Reports Analysis
- AUD – WEAK (4/5)
- GBP – STRONG (4/5)
- CAD – WEAK (3/5)
- EUR – STRONG (5/5)
- JPY – STRONG (5/5)
- CHF – WEAK (2/5)
- USD – MIXED
- NZD – STRONG (2/5)
- GOLD – STRONG (2/5)
- SILVER – STRONG (5/5)
Final Thoughts
While gold tests its support zone, the broader forex landscape reflects growing confidence in the U.S. economy’s resilience, thanks to trade breakthroughs and Fed caution. As the dollar gains strength across major pairs, risk sentiment is clearly shifting.
Traders should remain nimble—especially around key technical levels—as continued developments in U.S. trade policy and macroeconomic data will drive market direction in the days ahead.
