Market Analysis
GOLD
Gold prices have risen significantly, validating our earlier bullish bias. The market continues to show strong upward momentum, supported by bullish signals from both the MACD and RSI. However, the RSI is approaching overbought territory, suggesting the possibility of a short-term pullback or consolidation before the trend resumes. We anticipate continued buying pressure in the days ahead, with a potential test of new historic highs. This is particularly relevant as geopolitical tensions between India and Pakistan escalate—more on that in tomorrow’s update.
SILVER
Silver remains within its consolidation zone, yet bullish momentum is clearly building. This is evidenced by increasing bullish volume on the MACD. Despite this, the RSI is entering overbought levels, which may indicate a need for normalization in price action. We are waiting for a clear breakout before confirming directional bias.
DXY (U.S. Dollar Index)
The Dollar remains stuck in consolidation, lacking strong directional momentum. Markets are on edge, looking for clarity on when the Federal Reserve will initiate rate cuts. Recent Fed commentary suggests officials are in no rush and prefer not to pre-emptively adjust policy, creating uncertainty that leans hawkish for now.
GBP/USD
The Pound continues to consolidate, but maintains an underlying bullish tone. We anticipate potential upside continuation, although we acknowledge that sideways movement may persist until clearer guidance from the Dollar side emerges.
AUD/USD
The Aussie is showing renewed bullish strength after successfully retesting the EMA200. Despite bearish MACD signals, recent price action reflects stronger buying volume, and the overall bullish structure remains intact. The RSI hovering near overbought levels suggests a potential dip for normalization, but we maintain our bullish bias for now.
NZD/USD
Like the Aussie, the Kiwi is respecting its bullish structure despite testing recent lows. The EMA200 has been breached, but 0.59400 is still holding. The MACD has yet to fully reflect this bullish shift, while the RSI is also nearing overbought territory. This implies that the indicators are lagging behind price action, and we continue to favor a bullish outlook unless a clear structural break occurs.
EUR/USD
No changes to our view on the Euro. It remains in consolidation, and we will stay on the sidelines until a decisive break confirms directional momentum.
USD/JPY
The Yen has resumed bearish movement following a wave of weakness in Asian equities—Japan included. This weakens demand for the Yen and supports expectations for further consolidation until clarity returns to the Dollar. However, technicals point to potential upside, with the MACD showing bullish volume and the RSI bouncing from oversold territory. We anticipate short-term buying but remain cautious due to conflicting fundamentals.
USD/CHF
The Franc continues to move sideways in volatile fashion, remaining within a wide consolidation range. We advise staying neutral or trading only within ranges until a more decisive direction emerges.
USD/CAD
The CAD mirrors the Franc’s behavior, with both bullish and bearish forces in conflict. Prices are consolidating around key structural zones, making it difficult to commit to a directional call. We will wait for a clear breakout before taking action.
COT Reports Analysis
- AUD – WEAK (4/5)
- GBP – STRONG (4/5)
- CAD – WEAK (3/5)
- EUR – STRONG (5/5)
- JPY – STRONG (5/5)
- CHF – WEAK (2/5)
- USD – MIXED
- NZD – STRONG (2/5)
- GOLD – STRONG (2/5)
- SILVER – STRONG (5/5)
Final Thoughts
Bullish momentum continues to shape the gold market amid rising geopolitical tensions between India and Pakistan, validating the commodity’s safe-haven appeal. Meanwhile, USD pairs remain mostly in consolidation, with major forex players like the Aussie and Kiwi gaining bullish traction.
As traders await clarity from the Fed and potential global escalations, monitoring short-term pullbacks and support/resistance zones is key to informed entries. Stay vigilant—volatility may surge with little warning.
