Market Analysis
GOLD
Gold prices are currently facing increased selling pressure following reports from the Trump administration indicating “substantial” progress in U.S.-China trade negotiations. While Beijing echoed similar optimism, no specific terms have been released. The U.S. is expected to provide more details tomorrow.
This optimism is weakening safe-haven demand, especially as the U.S. also announced a trade agreement with the U.K., signaling broader progress on global trade fronts. A social media post by former President Trump referencing an 80% tariff—down from the expected 140%—on China, further fueled hopes for improved talks.
While an 80% tariff remains high, it marks a significant shift in tone, boosting risk sentiment. Technically, the MACD reflects strong bearish momentum, while the RSI is tightening between overbought and oversold levels. It did briefly bounce off oversold territory, indicating a normalization in selling. Despite breaking below the EMA200 and the bottom of the consolidation zone, the 3260.22 level remains key support. The bullish structure still holds, and we maintain a cautiously optimistic bias for now.
SILVER
Silver prices are consolidating. The MACD is not confirming the rise in bullish volume, suggesting potential for further downside. The RSI shows signs of curving upward, but unless it touches oversold levels, further selling remains a possibility. We wait for more decisive price action.
DXY (U.S. Dollar Index)
The Dollar gapped higher and shows strong potential for further upside. The MACD confirms bullish momentum, and the RSI has pulled back from overbought levels, indicating room for additional gains. While there’s a possibility for the gap to be filled, current sentiment favors continued strength. Caution is advised when trading this gap.
GBP/USD
The Pound remains in consolidation, and we do not call a directional shift yet. However, technical signals suggest downside potential. We maintain a neutral stance until a clearer breakout occurs but lean slightly bearish.
AUD/USD
The Aussie dollar is experiencing renewed bearish movement after being rejected at the EMA200. Although the MACD shows some bullish potential, the RSI remains near overbought territory, reinforcing our bearish outlook. We expect continued downside, consistent with the broader market shift.
NZD/USD
The Kiwi has shown a short-term rise but remains in a bearish structure overall. Price action continues to respect resistance at 0.59288, and unless broken, we expect further selling. The MACD reflects buying interest, but it’s not enough to overcome structural resistance. The RSI also flagged overbought conditions, supporting the case for a downward continuation.
EUR/USD
The Euro continues to lose momentum, with the MACD showing increasing selling volume. The RSI has normalized after previous selling pressure, suggesting more room for downside. We continue to favor bearish positions in this market.
USD/JPY
The Yen is weakening against the Dollar, particularly as U.S.-China trade optimism reduces safe-haven demand. The MACD and RSI both support further upside for USD/JPY. We anticipate continued bullish momentum in the coming sessions.
USD/CHF
The Franc has broken out of consolidation and is now showing bullish momentum. The MACD and RSI confirm the upward bias, and we will be watching for buying opportunities, though there is also a potential for the market to fill the recent gap.
USD/CAD
The CAD is weakening significantly as the Dollar rallies on trade optimism. The MACD and RSI reflect strong bullish momentum for USD/CAD. The pair has broken out of previous consolidation and is gaining traction. We expect further upside in the coming days.
COT Reports Analysis
- AUD – WEAK (4/5)
- GBP – STRONG (5/5)
- CAD – WEAK (5/5)
- EUR – STRONG (4/5)
- JPY – STRONG (5/5)
- CHF – WEAK (3/5)
- USD – MIXED
- NZD – WEAK (3/5)
- GOLD – STRONG (3/5)
- SILVER – STRONG (5/5)
Final Thoughts
As optimism grows around U.S.-China and U.S.-U.K. trade deals, the shift in sentiment is weighing on safe-haven assets like gold while energizing the U.S. dollar. This environment favors bullish dollar setups and presents downside risks for precious metals and commodity-linked currencies.
Traders should monitor upcoming trade announcements and Fed commentary for confirmation. Volatility is likely to remain high as global markets digest this evolving narrative.