Market Analysis
GOLD
Gold prices have continued their decline, now showing signs of further downside. We are seeing increased selling momentum and volume, as confirmed by technical indicators. The MACD reflects a strong bearish trend, while the RSI recently signaled overbought conditions before reversing, suggesting a deeper move lower is likely. The break below 3260.22, a critical support level, confirms a shift in overall momentum to the downside.
Fundamentally, the bid for metals has weakened significantly following renewed optimism over trade relations. In a joint statement, the U.S. announced a temporary reduction in tariffs on Chinese goods from 145% to 30%, while China agreed to cut its tariffs on American imports from 125% to 10%. This easing in trade tensions is dampening demand for safe-haven assets like gold.
SILVER
Silver prices remain in consolidation, with diminished demand continuing to suppress volatility. Current price levels appear normalized, and we expect the sideways movement to persist in the coming sessions unless a fresh catalyst emerges.
DXY (U.S. Dollar Index)
The Dollar has reached a high of 101.786, and we anticipate further upside as market optimism continues to drive bullish momentum. The MACD indicates growing volume, and the RSI strongly supports continued buying pressure. This momentum is supported both technically and fundamentally.
GBP/USD
The Pound is experiencing a renewed wave of selling, despite recent strength. Both the MACD and RSI reflect rising bearish momentum, confirming the shift. We expect further downside as Dollar strength dominates.
AUD/USD
As anticipated, the Aussie dollar is facing increased selling pressure. The MACD and RSI both signal a strong bearish trend, with momentum continuing to build. We maintain a bearish outlook on the pair.
NZD/USD
While China’s economic prospects typically benefit New Zealand, the Dollar’s strength in the wake of trade deal optimism has overpowered such correlations. As a result, the Kiwi is under pressure. The MACD and RSI confirm increased selling volume and momentum, pointing to further downside ahead.
EUR/USD
The Euro is also seeing heightened selling, in line with our previous expectations. After a gap fill, prices dropped sharply. The MACD and RSI both confirm the move, and we look for additional selling opportunities moving forward.
USD/JPY
Yen weakness continues as Asian market sentiment improves, particularly around China’s trade outlook. The MACD and RSI both show strong bullish momentum for USD/JPY, suggesting that further Yen losses are likely.
USD/CHF
The Franc is experiencing renewed selling pressure against the Dollar following eased trade tensions, which have reduced safe-haven demand. The MACD and RSI show increasing bullish momentum for USD/CHF, and we expect further upside in the coming sessions.
USD/CAD
CAD weakness is clearly evident. The MACD and RSI reflect strong bullish momentum and volume in favor of the Dollar. With the broader risk sentiment favoring the greenback, we anticipate further buying in USD/CAD as the bullish trend continues.
COT Reports Analysis
- AUD – WEAK (4/5)
- GBP – STRONG (5/5)
- CAD – WEAK (5/5)
- EUR – STRONG (4/5)
- JPY – STRONG (5/5)
- CHF – WEAK (3/5)
- USD – MIXED
- NZD – WEAK (3/5)
- GOLD – STRONG (3/5)
- SILVER – STRONG (5/5)
Final Thoughts
Eased U.S.-China trade tensions have significantly shifted market sentiment, pulling capital away from safe-haven assets like gold and into the U.S. Dollar. As technical indicators confirm bearish structures across several major pairs, dollar strength is becoming a dominant theme in forex markets.
Traders should continue to track economic data, tariff developments, and central bank rhetoric closely, as each will shape near-term market direction and momentum across gold, forex, and beyond.