Market Overview
The United States has recently intensified its trade policies, imposing significant tariffs on imports from Canada, Mexico, and China. This move has triggered retaliatory measures from these nations, escalating tensions and raising concerns over USD trading dynamics and global economic stability.
Canada plans tariffs on over $100 billion worth of U.S. goods, impacting liquidity and forex volatility and spreads. China has imposed tariffs up to 15% on select U.S. goods and expanded export controls on American companies.
Market volatility is on the rise, with potential correlation between currency pairs affecting forex strategies. A broader trade war could lead to economic downturns, increasing inflation, job losses, and a weakened dollar. If international trade shifts away from the USD, the U.S. economy could face long-term consequences, including liquidity issues in forex markets and potential hyperinflation.
Meanwhile, China remains resilient, setting an ambitious growth target of 5% for 2025, suggesting that alternative trade partnerships are being explored, further influencing exotic forex pairs vs. minors in the global financial market.
Market Analysis
GOLD
Gold prices remain high but consolidated after the latest tariff impositions. The market initially pushed U.S. prices upward due to the inflationary effects of these policies, but the intensification of trade wars continues to support demand for gold.
Fundamental factors indicate that ongoing tensions between Canada, China, and the U.S. have increased safe-haven demand for gold. The MACD hints at a potential bullish crossover despite a previous weak drop in price action. The RSI recently signaled oversold conditions, supporting a bullish continuation. EMA200 is now serving as strong support, reinforcing price action forecasting for further appreciation.
SILVER
Silver prices are following gold’s trajectory, benefiting from increased demand and weakening USD.
The MACD is trending upward, although bullish volume remains muted. Price action indicates steady buying momentum, with RSI levels confirming strong buying pressure. Resistance at 32.5177 has been broken, signaling further bullish movement.
DXY (US Dollar Index)
The USD trading dynamics are seeing a sharp decline amid economic concerns. U.S. job growth is slowing, and consumer confidence is dropping, further weakening the dollar’s outlook.
Private payrolls growth has slowed significantly, reflecting a cooling labor market. Disappointing economic data, including a slump in U.S. consumer confidence and a decline in retail sales, suggest a potential downturn. The MACD remains bearish, indicating consistent selling pressure, while the RSI is still overbought, signaling further potential downside.
GBPUSD
The pound has gained strength, breaking past 1.28508.
The MACD reflects muted volume but confirms bullish momentum. The RSI shows continued potential for upward movement. If tariffs expand to Europe, GBP could experience volatility.
AUDUSD
The Australian dollar is gaining traction amid USD weakness and forex volatility and spreads favoring risk-on assets.
The MACD confirms increasing bullish volume. The RSI remains under despite price rises, indicating sustained bullish momentum. Overall, market sentiment remains positive for continued buying opportunities.
NZDUSD
The Kiwi follows the Aussie’s trend, showing a bullish shift.
The MACD shows steady buying volume, while the RSI confirms strength despite price fluctuations. Correlation between currency pairs suggests that NZD and AUD movement remains closely linked.
EURUSD
The euro has surged following recent USD weakness, benefiting from shifting investor sentiment.
The MACD and RSI confirm increased bullish momentum. Investor focus is on the European Central Bank meeting, where another interest rate cut is expected as policymakers address trade war concerns.
USDJPY
Despite USD weakness, the yen remains in consolidation.
Markets discount further BOJ rate hikes, with probability studies suggesting a higher chance of tightening by May. A clear breakout has yet to be seen.
USDCHF
The Swiss franc is trading sideways, failing to gain its usual safe-haven appeal.
Contrary to expectations, CHF remains under pressure. Market volatility may increase demand for the franc in the coming weeks.
USDCAD
The Canadian dollar is experiencing increased selling momentum as markets lean toward bearish price action.
Price action has shifted bearish after breaking previous swing lows. Trade war effects continue to influence USD/CAD liquidity.
COT Reports Analysis
- AUD – WEAK (2/5)
- GBP – STRONG (5/5)
- CAD – WEAK (3/5)
- EUR – WEAK (2/5)
- JPY – STRONG (5/5)
- CHF – WEAK (4/5)
- USD – STRONG (4/5)
- NZD – WEAK (5/5)
- GOLD – STRONG (4/5)
- SILVER – STRONG (4/5)
