Market Analysis
GOLD
Gold prices are climbing despite the newly imposed tariffs on Canada, Mexico, and China. Fears of an escalating trade war are weighing on the USD trading dynamics, as uncertainty around the dollar’s strength grows. While tariffs typically increase domestic inflation, the broader economic strain on U.S. trade may weaken the liquidity in forex markets.
Despite a slight pullback, gold remains positioned for further appreciation. The MACD has crossed lower, indicating potential downside, but the RSI signals oversold levels, suggesting that selling pressure is fading. A retest of the lower zone is possible, yet the EMA200 offers strong support, reinforcing gold’s bullish outlook.
SILVER
Silver prices are gaining traction as the dollar faces heightened risk and uncertainty. With gold likely to push higher, silver could see increased demand once gold becomes overbought. The MACD shows muted selling volume, suggesting an upcoming price action forecasting shift toward buying. Meanwhile, the RSI consolidates, failing to register silver’s slow price climb as a decisive bullish signal. A break above the EMA200 could confirm further upside for silver.
DXY (US Dollar Index)
The USD trading dynamics remain weak, as the dollar recently suffered a steep decline, falling below 106.111, pushing price action back into a bearish trend. While the MACD nears a bullish crossover, this movement likely signals a short-term forex gain rather than a full reversal. The RSI indicates overbought conditions, reinforcing the likelihood of further selling pressure in the USD.
GBPUSD
The British pound is experiencing renewed buying momentum after rebounding from 1.25740, contrary to previous bearish expectations. The MACD consolidates, reflecting high price levels, while the RSI normalizes, suggesting strong momentum for further upside. If trade tensions escalate and new tariffs are imposed on Europe, GBP trading dynamics may shift, leading to potential downside risks.
AUDUSD
The Australian dollar remains in consolidation, recently extending its lower boundary before bouncing off support. The MACD shows increasing buying volume, while the RSI remains subdued, hinting at underlying strength. Despite testing the EMA200, forex volatility and spreads suggest that movement in AUDUSD is more influenced by dollar weakness than the Australian economy’s internal strength.
NZDUSD
The New Zealand dollar mirrors the AUD, remaining range-bound. Although NZD initially broke lower, price rebounded to test the EMA200 and the upper boundary. The MACD approaches a bullish crossover, signaling a potential upward shift. However, correlation between currency pairs suggests that NZD’s movement depends on broader forex trends rather than standalone strength.
EURUSD
The euro has surged due to the dollar’s weakness, capitalizing on shifting market sentiment to regain bullish momentum. The MACD strengthens, and the RSI confirms increasing buying pressure. This rally contradicts earlier expectations, indicating that traders are focusing on major and minor currency pairs amid concerns about the U.S. economy’s outlook.
USDJPY
The yen continues to consolidate while extending its range. After hitting new lows, USDJPY is now retesting the EMA200. The MACD shows rising bullish volume, but the RSI is already in overbought territory, suggesting a possible end to the current uptrend. Forex volatility and spreads will likely dictate the next major move in this pair.
USDCHF
The Swiss franc is regaining strength as investors seek safe-haven assets due to rising market uncertainty. Demand for stability has shifted price action forecasting toward selling pressure on USDCHF. The RSI indicates overbought levels, while the MACD suggests further upside potential. However, with escalating trade tensions, traders must remain cautious about potential downside moves.
USDCAD
The Canadian dollar remains in consolidation, with liquidity in forex markets impacting directional strength. Both the MACD and RSI confirm stagnation, as the market awaits fresh catalysts. Despite the USD’s decline, CAD weakness persists, leaving traders searching for bullish opportunities.
COT Reports Analysis
- AUD – WEAK (2/5)
- GBP – STRONG (5/5)
- CAD – WEAK (3/5)
- EUR – WEAK (2/5)
- JPY – STRONG (5/5)
- CHF – WEAK (4/5)
- USD – STRONG (4/5)
- NZD – WEAK (5/5)
- GOLD – STRONG (4/5)
- SILVER – STRONG (4/5)
