Market Overview
Following the implementation of a 10% tariff on Chinese imports on February 4, 2025, tensions escalated with China’s retaliatory measures. These include 10%-15% tariffs on select U.S. goods, export controls on critical minerals, and legal actions via the WTO. This geopolitical landscape has significantly impacted major and minor currency pairs, heightening market volatility and affecting short-term forex gains.
China’s strategic response aims to minimize economic disruption while countering U.S. actions. Meanwhile, Canada and Mexico view the U.S. tariff pause as a chance to negotiate, adding to the complex global economic environment.
Uncertainty persists in the U.S., fueled by the Federal Reserve’s steady interest rate policy despite inflation risks. Speculation about potential rate cuts adds to market anxiety, influencing price action forecasting.
Precious Metals Outlook
GOLD
GOLD has reached historic highs as investors seek safe-haven assets amidst economic uncertainty. Mixed signals from delayed tariffs drive traders toward gold. The MACD and RSI indicate strong momentum, with projections suggesting gold could hit $3,000/oz by March. This trend reflects the broader impact of compounding forex profits during volatile times.
SILVER
SILVER mirrors gold’s bullish trend, though with more modest gains. The MACD and RSI show strong volume and momentum, supporting a positive outlook, driven by its role as an inflation hedge.
Currency Pair Analysis
DXY (US Dollar Index)
The dollar has filled the gap and is poised for further gains. The EMA200 supports the price, though technical indicators remain mixed, requiring careful price action forecasting.
GBPUSD
The Pound shows recovery signs amid dollar weakness, though the trend remains bearish. The MACD and RSI reflect increased buying momentum, highlighting potential short-term forex gains.
AUDUSD
The Aussie dollar tests its consolidation range high, driven by optimism from tariff delays. The MACD and RSI show strong buying momentum, though anticipated rate cuts may temper gains.
NZDUSD
The Kiwi follows the AUD’s trajectory, testing resistance levels. Despite rate cut expectations, technical indicators suggest strong buying momentum. However, the overall trend remains bearish until key resistance levels break.
EURUSD
The Euro shows bullish momentum but struggles to recover fully. MACD and RSI indicate growing strength, though selling pressure persists amid U.S.-Europe trade tensions.
USDJPY
The Yen strengthens due to expectations of BOJ rate hikes. The MACD and RSI show increased volume, with the EMA200 acting as resistance. The broader outlook remains bearish.
USDCHF
The Franc shows bearish momentum, with continued selling pressure evident in technical indicators. No immediate reversal signs are present.
USDCAD
The CAD tests support levels amid tariff delays. The MACD suggests temporary buying momentum, but the broader trend leans bearish, influenced by Federal Reserve policy decisions.
COT Report Analysis
- AUD – WEAK (5/5)
- GBP – WEAK (4/5)
- CAD – WEAK (4/5)
- EUR – WEAK (4/5)
- JPY – WEAK (1/5)
- CHF – WEAK (5/5)
- USD – STRONG (4/5)
- NZD – WEAK (4/5)
- GOLD – STRONG (5/5)
- SILVER – STRONG (4/5)
Conclusion
Trade tensions and monetary policy shifts continue to influence major and minor currency pairs. Traders must leverage trading platform features for effective price action forecasting and compounding forex profits in this volatile landscape.
