GOLD
Gold has reached record highs amid escalating geopolitical tensions in the Middle East. Reports suggest Iran is accelerating its nuclear program, fueling investor uncertainty. Former President Donald Trump hinted at possible U.S. intervention in Gaza, later moderated by his aides, and proposed renegotiating a nuclear deal with Iran. Additionally, Washington’s planned resolution for the Russia-Ukraine conflict adds another layer of market instability.
Technically, gold remains in a bullish structure, with RSI reflecting strong momentum. However, the MACD signals a possible pullback as the market stabilizes. The EMA200 continues to provide robust support, sustaining a bullish outlook unless a clear reversal emerges.
SILVER
Silver is struggling to break past the 32.5177 resistance level. While the RSI indicates consolidation with bullish undertones, the MACD highlights weak selling momentum, suggesting limited downside pressure. The market favors continued bullish momentum if buying interest persists.
DXY (US Dollar Index)
The Dollar Index (DXY) has weakened, falling below the 107.834 level, signaling a bearish shift. The MACD reflects weak buying volume, while the RSI highlights overbought conditions that triggered the drop. The upcoming Non-Farm Payroll (NFP) report will be pivotal for price action forecasting, though expectations remain that the Federal Reserve will hold rates steady. The easing of trade war concerns and potential rate cuts continue to pressure the dollar.
Currency Pair Analysis
GBPUSD
The Pound surged before retracing amid cautious sentiment over a potential Bank of England rate cut (92% probability). The MACD suggests solid momentum, while the RSI signals oversold conditions, favoring bullish attempts. However, sustained gains hinge on economic data and policy shifts.
AUDUSD
The Aussie Dollar experiences steady buying as the U.S. dollar weakens. Despite some bearish signals from the MACD, the RSI indicates oversold conditions, supporting an overall bullish bias. A break of key support levels could alter this outlook.
NZDUSD
The Kiwi Dollar consolidates near 0.56859 after breaking key resistance. The MACD shows low volume, but the RSI suggests oversold conditions, indicating upside potential. However, continued consolidation might precede a further rally.
EURUSD
The Euro remains cautiously bullish, with the EMA200 providing dynamic support. RSI signals sustained buying interest, but resistance at previous highs prevents a decisive breakout. Further consolidation may precede a significant move.
USDJPY
The Yen gains strength as markets anticipate a Bank of Japan rate hike. The MACD recently crossed upward, signaling a short-term correction, while the RSI suggests overbought conditions for the dollar. The broader downtrend remains intact with BOJ’s tightening stance.
USDCHF
The Swiss Franc continues its downward trend. The MACD provides mixed signals, while the RSI highlights overbought conditions, reinforcing bearish momentum. The EMA200 remains a strong resistance level, keeping the outlook negative.
USDCAD
The Canadian Dollar stabilizes near key support but stays within a broader bearish trend. The MACD shows exaggerated selling volume, while the RSI indicates overbought conditions, limiting upside potential. Consolidation may persist, but further downside is likely.
COT Report Analysis
- AUD – WEAK (5/5)
- GBP – WEAK (4/5)
- CAD – WEAK (4/5)
- EUR – WEAK (4/5)
- JPY – WEAK (1/5)
- CHF – WEAK (5/5)
- USD – STRONG (4/5)
- NZD – WEAK (4/5)
- GOLD – STRONG (5/5)
- SILVER – STRONG (4/5)
Conclusion
Geopolitical tensions and central bank policies continue to shape major and minor currency pairs. Traders should leverage trading platform features and price action forecasting to navigate short-term forex gains and compounding forex profits in an evolving market environment.
