MARKET ANALYSIS
GOLD
Gold prices are experiencing strong bullish momentum after rebounding off the EMA200 yesterday. The breakout from consolidation has pushed gold toward historic highs, raising questions about whether it has enough strength to surpass its previous record levels.
Marex analyst Edward Meir commented, “$3,000 is the next logical target, likely reached over the next several months. CPI data was encouraging, but the tariff increase has yet to reflect in inflation data.”
Recent U.S. consumer price index (CPI) data showed inflation increasing less than expected last month. However, this improvement may be temporary, given Trump’s aggressive tariff policies on China, Canada, and Mexico. These tariffs are expected to increase costs for goods, which could delay rate cuts by the Federal Reserve.
Lower inflation gives the Fed more flexibility to cut interest rates, creating a favorable environment for gold, which thrives in low-interest-rate conditions.
Technical indicators remain bullish, with the MACD showing increasing buying momentum and the RSI failing to call overbought levels, despite the surge in price. This indicates strong bullish sentiment, reinforcing expectations for further price appreciation. We continue looking for buying opportunities in the coming days.
SILVER
Silver prices are also gaining momentum, following gold’s trajectory. The MACD is nearing a crossover, while the RSI remains stable despite silver’s strong bullish movement.
Silver’s price increase is aligned with gold’s rally, suggesting that further appreciation is likely. If gold continues breaking resistance levels, silver should follow suit. We maintain a bullish outlook and look for buying opportunities.
DXY (US Dollar Index)
The U.S. dollar remains in consolidation, with markets struggling to process the impact of Trump’s tariffs and inflation policies.
Despite expectations that inflationary policies could delay rate cuts, the market remains undecided. The MACD and RSI are neutral, indicating a wait-and-see approach from traders. However, overall price direction remains bearish, reinforcing expectations for a weaker dollar.
GBPUSD
The British pound has broken above resistance, signaling a stronger bullish continuation.
Although the MACD remains steady, the RSI is dropping despite minimal price movement, confirming increased bullish momentum. If this breakout holds, GBPUSD could see further appreciation in the coming days.
AUDUSD
The Australian dollar is benefiting from uncertainty surrounding the USD, driving prices higher.
The MACD confirms increased buying volume, while the RSI is nearing overbought levels. While bullish momentum is strong, we remain cautious about a potential pullback if USD stabilizes. However, as long as uncertainty continues, AUDUSD remains positioned for further gains.
NZDUSD
The New Zealand dollar remains in consolidation, similar to AUD.
Despite recent price growth, RSI is dropping rapidly, reflecting increasing bullish momentum. The MACD remains steady, confirming continued strength. If this trend persists, NZDUSD may see further upside movement in the near future.
EURUSD
The euro remains steady, awaiting more direction from U.S. monetary policy.
The MACD indicates rising selling pressure, while the RSI remains near oversold territory. Price action suggests a potential breakout, but we need more confirmation before predicting a strong bullish move.
USDJPY
The Japanese yen remains weak, following expectations from previous sessions.
Although it tested the EMA200, price action quickly reversed, maintaining bearish momentum. The MACD is increasing in volume, while the RSI normalizes without reaching oversold conditions, confirming continued downside pressure.
Additionally, wage growth and inflation remain strong in Japan, giving the Bank of Japan (BOJ) more room for interest rate hikes. Higher wages are expected to boost consumer spending, which could support yen strength in the long term.
USDCHF
The Swiss franc continues to weaken, failing to reach the EMA200 resistance level.
Although the MACD confirms more selling pressure, the RSI is rising quickly, signaling weak buying attempts. Given the market structure, we anticipate more selling opportunities in the short term.
USDCAD
There are no major changes in the Canadian dollar’s outlook. However, trade tensions with the U.S. could trigger further weakness if Trump escalates tariff measures against Canada.
The Bank of Canada recently cut interest rates by 25 basis points, citing inflation concerns and slower economic growth.
Carol Kong, a currency strategist at Commonwealth Bank of Australia, commented, “Tariffs pose inflationary risks, making central banks cautious about rate cuts. Even if they lower rates to support growth, inflation concerns will limit monetary policy flexibility.”
Until further developments arise, we expect continued CAD consolidation.
COT Reports Analysis
- AUD – WEAK (5/5)
- GBP – STRONG (5/5)
- CAD – WEAK (5/5)
- EUR – WEAK (1/5)
- JPY – STRONG (5/5)
- CHF – WEAK (3/5)
- USD – STRONG (4/5)
- NZD – WEAK (5/5)
- GOLD – STRONG (3/5)
- SILVER – STRONG (4/5)
Final Thoughts
The USD trading dynamics remain uncertain, with markets closely watching inflation trends and Fed rate cut decisions. Gold and silver remain strong amid uncertainty in global trade and monetary policy.
If inflation remains low, the Fed could cut interest rates sooner than expected, reinforcing a bullish trend in gold and risk-sensitive assets. Traders should closely monitor tariff developments, inflation data, and central bank announcements for clearer market direction.
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