Market Analysis
GOLD
Gold prices continue to consolidate with no significant movement. As expected, prices rebounded from the bottom support zone. However, market uncertainty remains, particularly with potential peace negotiations between Ukraine and Russia. If a resolution is reached, gold’s bullish momentum may slow.
The MACD is trending bullish, while the RSI indicates buy normalization, suggesting that gold still respects its overall bullish structure. A breakout above key resistance zones will determine the next move.
SILVER
Silver prices have gained momentum, showing increased bullish movement. The MACD confirms a bullish trend, and the RSI indicates oversold conditions after a small decline, reinforcing upward potential.
However, silver’s movement largely depends on gold. If gold breaks above resistance, silver is likely to follow with significant gains in the coming days. Until then, consolidation remains a possibility.
DXY (US Dollar Index)
The USD trading dynamics show signs of weakness, with the dollar consolidating before a sharp drop yesterday. The decline has placed gold in a more favorable position, as risk-sensitive assets such as the Euro, Australian dollar, and Kiwi gain strength.
The RSI is signaling overbought conditions, confirming an increase in selling momentum. Meanwhile, the MACD has crossed upward, indicating a potential continuation of USD weakness. Based on price action forecasting, further selling pressure is expected.
GBPUSD
The British pound is gaining strength, fueled by optimism surrounding potential peace negotiations in Ukraine.
The MACD suggests a short-term cross before a bullish continuation, while the RSI confirms strong buying momentum. As prices test the upper boundary of resistance, the GBPUSD bullish bias remains intact. If USD weakness continues, the pound could see further upside.
AUDUSD
The Australian dollar remains strong, maintaining its position near recent highs.
If peace talks between Ukraine and Russia continue, market stability could boost demand for risk-sensitive currencies. The MACD is consolidating, while the RSI indicates oversold conditions, hinting at further bullish potential.
Despite a minor pullback, overall price action remains bullish. If the dollar strengthens, a deeper correction could occur, but as long as AUDUSD holds key support levels, buying opportunities remain favorable.
NZDUSD
The New Zealand dollar is consolidating but outperforming the Australian dollar.
Prices are holding above the EMA200 and the 0.56859 level, maintaining a bullish structure. The MACD remains neutral, while the RSI is stabilizing at lower levels, suggesting buying pressure remains strong.
If USD weakness persists, NZDUSD is expected to climb further. However, a break below key support zones could lead to short-term consolidation.
EURUSD
The euro is experiencing increased bullish movement, benefiting from improving risk sentiment.
The MACD is nearing a bearish cross, but the RSI signals oversold conditions, increasing the likelihood of price appreciation. Optimism around peace negotiations in Ukraine is contributing to the euro’s strength.
We await further confirmation before calling a major directional move, but the euro’s bullish structure remains intact.
USDJPY
The Japanese yen continues to consolidate within a larger trend range.
Despite a recent drop, the likelihood of further downside remains higher than a sustained rally. The MACD is showing increased buying activity, but RSI remains neutral, signaling uncertainty in price direction.
A clear breakout or additional guidance from the BOJ will provide clarity on the next movement in this market.
USDCHF
The Swiss franc is seeing a steady rise, largely due to safe-haven demand fading as peace talks develop.
Both the MACD and RSI show increasing bullish movement, though the RSI is nearing overbought territory. There is a possibility that price faces rejection near the EMA200 before resuming its downward trend.
Traders should monitor key resistance levels for a clearer price action confirmation before making major moves.
USDCAD
The Canadian dollar continues to trade within a wide consolidation range, as expected.
The MACD remains indecisive, while the RSI suggests neutrality, reinforcing the view that no clear breakout has occurred.
Given ongoing trade tensions between the U.S. and Canada, we anticipate continued price swings. Until a firm breakout occurs, USDCAD will likely remain in a consolidation phase.
COT Reports Analysis
- AUD – WEAK (5/5)
- GBP – STRONG (5/5)
- CAD – WEAK (5/5)
- EUR – WEAK (1/5)
- JPY – STRONG (5/5)
- CHF – WEAK (3/5)
- USD – STRONG (4/5)
- NZD – WEAK (5/5)
- GOLD – STRONG (3/5)
- SILVER – STRONG (4/5)
Final Thoughts
The USD trading dynamics suggest continued weakness, supporting further upside in gold and risk-sensitive currencies. Forex volatility and spreads remain high, with traders closely watching geopolitical developments.
If peace negotiations progress, expect increased demand for risk-sensitive assets, weakening USD further. Traders should monitor major and minor currency pairs, as fundamental factors will drive market trends.
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