Market Analysis
GOLD
Gold prices have risen significantly during the Asian session, driven by renewed uncertainty over the Federal Reserve’s rate cut path following the release of stronger-than-expected U.S. jobs data. Compounding this, Donald Trump has opened a new front in his trade war, announcing a 100% tariff on non-U.S.-produced movies and hinting at upcoming pharmaceutical tariffs within the next two weeks.
Technically, both the MACD and RSI continue to climb steadily, supporting a bullish outlook. We expect further buying interest to emerge in the coming days, fueled by geopolitical and economic uncertainty.
SILVER
Silver has reversed back to a buying stance, breaking below recent lows before rebounding. However, price action remains confined within a broader consolidation zone. While we anticipate a potential return to selling pressure, there is also a strong possibility of further sideways movement in the short term.
With Trump’s unpredictable policy shifts, particularly affecting commodities, market sentiment toward metals remains fluid and highly reactive.
DXY (U.S. Dollar Index)
The Dollar is currently trading in consolidation as markets await clarity on the Fed’s next move and its response to Trump’s recent trade policies. Despite this uncertainty, technical indicators continue to respect the prevailing bullish structure.
- MACD: Flattened, indicating indecision
- RSI: Hovering near overbought territory
Given these signals, we maintain a cautiously bullish stance but remain alert to potential shifts based on upcoming Fed commentary.
GBP/USD
The Pound continues to trade sideways, with movement constrained as traders await Fed direction. However, with expectations rising that the Fed will hold interest rates steady, this may translate into relative weakness in the Dollar—potentially benefiting the Pound.
The broader bias remains bullish, and we are looking for buying opportunities on any confirmed breakout.
AUD/USD
The Aussie dollar remains in consolidation, having failed to break above the 0.64801 resistance level. While we maintain a bullish bias, the current structure indicates potential for extended sideways movement.
- MACD: Showing downward momentum
- RSI: Approaching oversold territory
We await a clear breakout before confirming further directional bias.
NZD/USD
The Kiwi is holding near 0.59796, suggesting a chance for continued bullish movement. However, the MACD is beginning to show signs of bearish momentum, though this could prove temporary.
- RSI: Indicating oversold conditions
This divergence suggests a possible short-term dip before a bullish continuation, and we will monitor closely for confirmation.
EUR/USD
The Euro continues to consolidate, with no significant breakout or directional bias. We remain neutral on this pair until a clear structural shift is evident.
USD/JPY
The Yen is showing early signs of potential bearish momentum, though not yet confirmed. Prices are currently supported by the EMA200, acting as a floor.
- MACD: Expected to shift downward
- RSI: Approaching overbought levels
Given these signals, the probability of a bearish continuation is increasing, but we await confirmation before committing to a directional bias.
USD/CHF
We continue to observe consolidation in the Franc. While the broader bias remains bullish, a breakout is required to confirm further upside potential.
USD/CAD
CAD remains in a tight consolidation range, trading near the EMA200. No breakout has been observed yet, and we hold off on directional calls until the market presents a decisive move.
COT Reports Analysis
- AUD – WEAK (4/5)
- GBP – STRONG (4/5)
- CAD – WEAK (3/5)
- EUR – STRONG (5/5)
- JPY – STRONG (5/5)
- CHF – WEAK (2/5)
- USD – MIXED
- NZD – STRONG (2/5)
- GOLD – STRONG (2/5)
- SILVER – STRONG (5/5)
Final Thoughts
With Trump’s aggressive new tariff announcements and unexpectedly strong U.S. employment data, market volatility is on the rise. Gold and silver are responding with bullish setups, while forex pairs remain highly sensitive to Fed commentary and shifting geopolitical dynamics.
Traders should maintain a flexible approach and monitor key technical levels, especially in consolidation-heavy pairs like USD/CAD and EUR/USD. As rate expectations and trade tensions evolve, these trends will likely define short-term forex trading strategies.
