Market Overview
Key Economic Releases This Week:
- Mar 12: JOLTS Job Openings (USD Trading Dynamics)
- Mar 13: Core CPI, CPI m/m & y/y (USD); BOC Rate Statement, Overnight Rate, Press Conference (CAD)
- Mar 14: Core PPI, PPI, Unemployment Claims (USD)
- Mar 15: GDP m/m (GBP); Prelim UoM Consumer Sentiment & Inflation Expectations (USD)
With rate cuts on hold, the focus shifts to the health of the U.S. economy amid trade war challenges. The question remains: Will Trump’s policies strengthen the economy, or will dissatisfaction among voters prove warranted?
U.S. Stock Market Performance
As of March 2025, the U.S. stock market is slowing down. The S&P 500 is down 2% YTD, while the Nasdaq has dropped 6%, indicating signs of consolidation after two strong years.
Current Market Performance:
- Dow Jones: 42,802 (+0.6% YTD)
- S&P 500: 5,770 (-1.9% YTD)
- Nasdaq: 18,196 (-5.8% YTD)
Defensive sectors such as health care and consumer staples are leading, while technology and consumer discretionary stocks are struggling due to high valuations.
Economic Growth and Rate Cut Speculation
Growth is slowing, with the Atlanta Fed projecting Q1 GDP at -2.4%. Although a recession isn’t imminent, if the downward trend continues, the Federal Reserve may implement three quarter-point rate cuts in 2025 to support the economy.
Recent Stock Movements:
- Gainers: Nvidia, UnitedHealth, IBM (+3.29%)
- Losers: Intel, Boeing, American Express, Walt Disney, JPMorgan Chase (-5.54%)
Market Impact and Wealth Distribution
The top 1% of taxpayers contribute significantly to the U.S. economy, holding a majority of total adjusted gross income. If stock markets crash, the impact will be severe, leading to forex volatility and spreads affecting USD strength.
The stock market index serves as a key indicator of potential economic growth or a slowdown.
Market Analysis
GOLD
Gold prices remain in consolidation, showing little movement despite the release of Non-Farm Payroll (NFP) news last week. Gold remains above the EMA200, maintaining its bullish structure.
The MACD and RSI show neutral trends, indicating indecision in price action. Liquidity in forex markets remains stable, with gold prices waiting for a decisive USD move. A clear breakout is required before confirming the next trend direction.
SILVER
Silver prices remain supported at 32.5177, indicating further upside potential.
The RSI signals overbought levels, suggesting a continuation of consolidation. MACD shows exaggerated selling pressure, yet price action remains bullish. EMA200 serves as strong support, reinforcing the bullish trend. Until silver breaks a key structure, it remains in a range-bound forex market.
DXY (US Dollar Index)
The USD trading dynamics remain bearish, with the dollar struggling to gain strength.
The MACD indicates rising bullish volume, yet price fails to reflect this. The RSI remains overbought, reinforcing further selling pressure. Correlation between currency pairs suggests that a weaker USD could benefit commodities like gold and silver.
GBPUSD
The British pound reached a new high last week but failed to maintain momentum, entering a consolidation phase.
The MACD and RSI fail to provide clear signals as markets remain in a wait-and-see mode. Major economic releases this week could dictate GBP movement.
AUDUSD
The Australian dollar is consolidating below the previous swing high.
The EMA200 provides support, preventing further declines. The MACD signals a potential bullish crossover, indicating buying opportunities. The RSI remains neutral, suggesting price may continue moving sideways before breaking out.
NZDUSD
The Kiwi dollar remains supported by the EMA200, showing signs of bullish momentum.
The MACD is set to cross higher, signaling increased buying pressure. The RSI remains in the lower range, reinforcing bullish sentiment. Market sentiment suggests NZD will maintain its uptrend, provided the USD remains weak.
EURUSD
The Euro continues consolidating after reaching a new high last week.
The MACD and RSI suggest stable conditions, confirming ongoing strength in the euro. If USD weakness persists, EURUSD could break higher.
USDJPY
The Japanese yen is experiencing increased bearish movement, but remains within a consolidation zone.
The MACD signals a potential buy, despite the recent price drop. The RSI is elevated, indicating a possible continuation of the downward trend. Bank of Japan’s rate hike speculations could influence further yen strength.
USDCHF
The Swiss franc is strengthening, providing a more stable option against the USD.
The MACD shows increasing bearish momentum, reinforcing downside potential. The RSI calls for overbought conditions, aligning with further selling opportunities. USD weakness is driving CHF strength, making this a key forex trading opportunity.
USDCAD
The Canadian dollar remains range-bound, with no clear directional bias.
The EMA200 is being tested, indicating potential breakout scenarios. The MACD suggests bullish movement, while RSI normalizes. Until a clearer direction emerges, consolidation is expected.
COT Reports Analysis
- AUD – WEAK (5/5)
- GBP – STRONG (5/5)
- CAD – WEAK (5/5)
- EUR – WEAK (1/5)
- JPY – STRONG (5/5)
- CHF – WEAK (3/5)
- USD – STRONG (4/5)
- NZD – WEAK (5/5)
- GOLD – STRONG (3/5)
- SILVER – STRONG (4/5)
Final Thoughts
The USD trading dynamics, forex volatility and spreads, and liquidity in forex markets are the key drivers shaping this week’s market outlook. Stock market performance and economic indicators will play a crucial role in defining upcoming trends.
Traders should closely monitor economic releases, as they will set the tone for the major and minor currency pairs in the coming weeks.
This version removes bullet points in the Market Analysis section while keeping the readability intact. Let me know if you need any additional refinements!
