Market Outlook: Major Currency Pairs & Impact of Tariff Policies

MARKET OVERVIEW

This week brings significant market activity with key speeches and data releases. On Tuesday, both BoE Governor Bailey and Fed Chair Powell will deliver addresses. Wednesday features US CPI data and another speech by Powell. Thursday’s highlights include New Zealand inflation, British GDP, Swiss CPI, US PPI, and unemployment claims. US retail sales data will wrap up the week on Friday.

Market volatility remains high after former US President Donald Trump announced plans for a 25% tariff on all steel and aluminum imports. This move could escalate trade policies, with Trump hinting at reciprocal tariffs on several countries early this week.

Geopolitical tensions persist as Iran moves forward with purchasing Russian fighter jets despite US warnings. Trump maintains his firm stance on preventing Iran from acquiring nuclear weapons, adding further uncertainty to global markets.

GOLD

Gold prices hover near all-time highs, fueled by trade tensions and geopolitical concerns. The MACD shows muted volume, while the RSI approaches overbought levels. However, the EMA200 and overall price momentum remain bullish. Short-term forex gains remain promising, with compounding forex profits likely if the market sustains current trends.

SILVER

Silver remains consolidated between 31.9590–32.5177. The EMA200 serves as strong support, but the MACD and RSI indicate increasing bearish momentum. While prices may trend lower, consolidation is expected as traders wait for signals from gold and the dollar.

DXY

The Dollar rebounded on tariff-related news, recovering above previous support but falling short of the last swing high. The MACD suggests increasing buying momentum, while the RSI normalizes recent gains. Despite these factors, the dollar’s overall trend remains bearish as it struggles to break key resistance levels. Price action forecasting suggests caution in long-term positions.

GBPUSD

The Pound continues to consolidate while holding a bullish outlook above the 1.23883 support level. The MACD lacks directional momentum, while the RSI signals exaggerated buying pressure despite muted upward movement. Trading platform features will be critical in managing risk, as we remain cautiously bullish but acknowledge potential for a bearish shift.

AUDUSD

The Australian Dollar remains supported by the EMA200 and a prior swing low, maintaining a bullish structure. However, resistance overhead limits gains. Both the MACD and RSI indicate growing bearish momentum. Clarity in price action forecasting will depend on increased market volume and trading platform reactions.

NZDUSD

The Kiwi Dollar faces stronger downward pressure than the Australian dollar, trading below key support levels, including the EMA200. Tariff-related developments have accelerated bearish momentum, confirmed by the MACD and RSI. This market currently favors further downside, affecting short-term forex gains.

EURUSD

The Euro struggles to shift its overall trend bullish, facing increased selling momentum. The MACD and RSI confirm bearish sentiment, with fundamentals pointing to deeper ECB rate cuts this year amid tariff threats and deflation concerns. Price action forecasting suggests continued downside movement.

USDJPY

The Yen experiences strong bearish momentum, with RSI reflecting overbought conditions before the recent downturn. The MACD nears a bearish cross, reinforcing the current negative sentiment. The yen remains under pressure, driven by expectations of additional rate hikes from the BoJ later this year.

USDCHF

The Swiss Franc exhibits steady bullish momentum, staying above the EMA200 and the 0.90743 resistance level. The MACD reflects positive volume, and the RSI normalizes after recent gains. The outlook remains bullish, with compounding forex profits possible in longer-term trades.

USDCAD

The Canadian Dollar remains consolidated following last week’s tariff news. Although downward pressure exists, it is unlikely to trigger a major selloff. We maintain a neutral outlook, awaiting further market cues to confirm either a continuation of consolidation or a shift toward bullish momentum. Price action forecasting will be key in managing trades.