Market Analysis: Price Action & Trends in Gold, Forex & USD

Gold

Gold prices have now reached historic highs, and we anticipate continued buying momentum. However, we will observe how the market develops over the next few days. There are no changes in our readings aside from the MACD reflecting increased bullish volume, despite still showing some bearish signals in a buying market. The RSI is also capturing the upward momentum but has yet to fully reflect price changes due to the current consolidation. More price action forecasting will provide clarity, but we expect some developments today.

One of the key drivers behind gold’s strength is Trump’s newly announced 25% tariff on autos, along with duties on semiconductors and pharmaceuticals, further escalating trade tensions. Additionally, US-Russia peace talks regarding the Ukraine war have raised concerns, especially with Kyiv being excluded, increasing fears of potential delays.

Silver

Silver prices are seeing increased bullish momentum following gold’s movement, though the rise is still somewhat muted. Price action overall suggests a strengthening buying trend, with 32.5177 acting as a solid support level. The MACD is showing exaggerated selling volume despite weak actual selling, which suggests increasing buying pressure. The RSI is also signaling oversold conditions despite only a small swing in price. Given these indicators, we expect silver’s bullish trend to continue.

DXY (US Dollar Index)

The dollar is facing increased selling momentum after market expectations for the FOMC were not met. IG market strategist Yeap Jun Rong commented that Trump’s policies have complicated the Fed’s balance between inflation and employment, forcing policymakers into a “wait-and-see” approach. Market sentiment was already aligned for a rate hold in the next two FOMC meetings, and the minutes mainly confirmed this outlook.

As investors adopt a cautious stance, we expect continued weakness in the dollar. Price action forecasting remains bearish, with the dollar failing to break above the EMA200. The MACD is crossing lower, and the RSI is nearing oversold levels after previously signaling overbought conditions. Given these mixed signals, the dollar remains highly unpredictable at this time.

Major and Minor Currency Pairs Outlook

GBPUSD

The pound remains consolidated, with no significant changes in our outlook. However, price weakness has been noted despite the dollar’s decline, which was contrary to our expectations. This may be linked to analysts closely watching the developments in Ukraine and Russia. While there is a chance that markets could drop below 1.25740 to test the EMA200, the probability of another test of 1.26163 remains higher.

AUDUSD

The Australian dollar remains in consolidation with little change in our reading. We continue to wait for more price action forecasting before confirming a shift in trend.

NZDUSD

The Kiwi tested lower levels but failed to show significant market movement. We anticipate further consolidation, and there are no changes to our outlook for this market.

EURUSD

Euro prices have also stalled, delaying gains amid uncertainty surrounding the Ukraine-Russia peace talks. With major and minor currency pairs still trapped in consolidation, there are no changes to our reading for now.

USDJPY

The yen has capitalized on dollar weakness, driving prices lower. The MACD and RSI indicate that selling momentum is continuing, reinforcing our bearish outlook. This aligns with our previous shift in sentiment, and we expect further downside in the yen’s price movement.

USDCHF

The franc remains steady despite dollar weakness, consolidating as markets await further price action. Both the MACD and RSI are providing little directional insight at this point. However, overall price action forecasting remains bearish, and we remain watchful for further downside opportunities as the EMA200 continues to act as a resistance level.

USDCAD

The Canadian dollar has gained enough to test the EMA200, but the MACD and RSI are already signaling caution. The MACD is showing decreasing volume, while the RSI is flagging overbought conditions. While CAD has managed a short-term forex gain, overall price action remains bearish. We expect the market to turn lower, but further confirmation is needed before calling a definitive move in the coming days.

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COT Reports Analysis

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