Market Analysis: Gold, Silver, USD, EUR & Forex Trends

GOLD

Core inflation last week turned up as expected, reinforcing the Federal Reserve’s stance to hold on rates. Toward the end of last week and the start of Monday, we saw a recovery in price, with gold reaching its previous lower boundary and almost testing the lower high. The MACD has been gaining volume, but the RSI has signaled overbought conditions, suggesting increased market expectations for selling in the short term.

However, gold’s long-term trajectory remains bullish as traders continue to use it as a hedge against liquidity in forex markets and the risks posed by a strengthening USD. Additionally, economic strain from tariffs on Canada, Mexico, and China could further drive demand for gold. Correlation between currency pairs and market volatility also impact gold pricing, making it a crucial asset in a diversified portfolio. While short-term fluctuations hint at downside movement, the broader market sees gold as a safe-haven investment.

SILVER

Silver prices are seeing an extension of selling momentum, with the price testing 31.4724 and appearing poised to move lower. The RSI has already signaled increased selling pressure after previously hitting overbought levels, reinforcing the bearish outlook. The MACD recently crossed up, but given the ongoing momentum, we expect it to cross back under to continue the downtrend.

As silver is often correlated with gold and other precious metals, traders watch it closely when analyzing forex volatility and spreads. While some investors may seek alternative assets in times of uncertainty, silver’s performance remains closely tied to the broader economic outlook and USD trading dynamics.

DXY (US DOLLAR INDEX)

The dollar continues to exhibit strong buying momentum, though the Monday open saw a weak start with a large gap in price. The MACD reflects this increased selling pressure, and the RSI follows through with similar momentum.

Despite the short-term pullback, overall price action remains bullish, and we expect prices to test the EMA200 and 106.848 before any significant shift occurs. However, there is also a chance the price will first move back to fill the gap. More trading activity is needed for confirmation, but the broader market expectation remains in favor of a continued rise. The USD trading dynamics and its correlation between currency pairs continue to be key drivers of its strength.

GBPUSD

The Pound is showing signs of shifting into a sell-off. A confirmed break below 1.25740 will likely lead to continued selling. The resistance levels at the EMA200 and 1.26163 are proving effective in capping price gains. The MACD reflects strong volume, but the actual price movement remains relatively small in comparison, suggesting underlying weakness.

The RSI has also signaled overbought conditions, reinforcing the expectation of increasing selling pressure. Notably, despite the dollar’s weakness over the weekend, the Pound failed to capitalize on the move, further confirming its fragility. GBP trading dynamics suggest that unless we see a fundamental shift, the currency remains susceptible to further downside.

AUDUSD

The Aussie dollar is experiencing increased selling momentum after last week’s performance. The MACD shows strong buying volume, but as with the Pound, the price movement upward is too weak in comparison, confirming a bearish bias.

The RSI is also aggressively signaling overbought conditions, reinforcing the expectation of a stronger sell-off. With the influence of forex volatility and spreads, AUDUSD remains a currency pair to watch for continued downside movement.

NZDUSD

The Kiwi is displaying similar signals, with price breaking below its lower boundaries and selling momentum increasing. The RSI and MACD show patterns consistent with those in the Pound and Aussie dollar, both confirming growing selling strength.

As part of the exotic forex pairs vs. minors debate, the NZD often exhibits more volatility compared to major pairs. With this setup, we continue to look for more selling opportunities in the market.

EURUSD

The Euro saw a significant drop, but Monday’s open provided some hope for an upward move. However, we still see increasing chances for further selling.

The RSI has signaled overbought conditions, despite the MACD showing increased buying volume. Given the broader weakness and current price structure, we remain positioned for more selling opportunities in the Euro. As part of EUR trading dynamics, the pair remains sensitive to shifts in USD strength and global economic factors.

USDJPY

The Yen remains within consolidation, bouncing off 150.883 while showing increased selling momentum. The MACD and RSI remain neutral, offering no clear directional bias yet.

Price has broken above the EMA200 but has not yet confirmed a full shift in momentum. If it successfully breaks above 150.883, only then will we confirm a complete market shift to the upside. Until then, we expect continued consolidation. The correlation between currency pairs plays a key role in USDJPY movement, with safe-haven demand often dictating momentum.

USDCHF

The Franc’s weakness is becoming more evident, with stable upward momentum in play. While the MACD has been consolidating, the RSI has signaled oversold conditions, reflecting an increased push for buying.

With this setup, we continue to look for more buying opportunities in the market. The liquidity in forex markets influences USDCHF pricing, particularly in times of global economic uncertainty.

USDCAD

The CAD remains weak, with no change in our outlook, especially as the tariffs on Canada and Mexico are set to be enacted soon. We await further confirmation of Trump’s decision but continue to expect more buying in the market and a stronger dollar.

The RSI is already showing increasing buying momentum, further reinforcing this expectation. The forex volatility and spreads around USDCAD remain key drivers for short-term trading opportunities.

COT Reports Analysis

Conclusion

This week’s market analysis highlights critical movements across USD, EUR, and GBP trading dynamics, along with insights into forex volatility and spreads. The ongoing shifts in major and exotic forex pairs vs. minors continue to shape market trends, making it essential to stay updated on fundamental and technical factors influencing price action.