Market Analysis
GOLD
Gold prices find increased chances for a continuation of consolidation after a rapid rise. Prices lowered after coming just shy of $3,350/oz.
The MACD is showing growth in bearish movement, but volume is weak—indicating exaggerated MACD strength relative to the actual price action. The RSI is also nearing oversold levels from the previous low, touching the lower boundary. While this suggests a possible normalization of selling momentum, any bounce off the EMA200 could fuel further bullish movement. We await a decisive breakout to confirm a continuation higher or lower.
Importantly, price action remains within a bullish structure, supporting the case for continued upside. We will continue to look for long setups.
This view is supported by fundamentals:
- On May 22, 2025, the U.S. House passed a major tax bill projected to add $2.3T–$3.1T to the deficit over the next decade.
- If fully extended, the TCJA provisions may raise the cost closer to $7 trillion.
- The Senate is now reviewing the bill, with likely revisions ahead.
- In the Middle East, Israel is reportedly preparing for strikes on Iranian nuclear facilities, while Iran issues strong counterwarnings.
These developments reinforce gold’s role as a safe haven, with some analysts projecting the strongest weekly rally in over a month—should technicals align with this fundamental backdrop.
SILVER
Silver prices are supported by key boundaries and the EMA200. This base structure suggests more buying could emerge. The MACD is beginning to favor upside momentum, while the RSI reflects recovery from oversold levels. We remain bullish and will monitor closely for a breakout above current resistance.
DXY (U.S. Dollar Index)
The Dollar is finding increased selling pressure. The EMA200 is closing in, indicating potential short-term support before a continuation downward. The MACD shows strong bearish volume, and the RSI is approaching oversold territory. While a minor bounce is possible, the broader setup remains bearish.
GBP/USD
The Pound is pushing higher, supported by a healthy MACD and growing bullish RSI momentum. While the RSI is nearing overbought territory, this may lead to a brief pullback before further bullish continuation. We maintain a bullish bias and look for reentry on dips or confirmed breakouts.
AUD/USD
The Aussie dollar remains in consolidation. We continue to trade within the range and await a clear structural break before committing to a directional bias.
NZD/USD
The Kiwi also remains in consolidation. Technical indicators provide no clear signal. We await a breakout for trade confirmation.
EUR/USD
The Euro is consolidating but recently tested the EMA200 and rebounded. With ongoing Dollar weakness, bullish continuation is possible. Still, we remain cautious and will only confirm a bullish trend upon a clear breakout above the upper boundary. Until then, our bias remains cautiously bullish.
USD/JPY
The Yen continues to gain on the Dollar, but remains trapped between 143.442 and 144.451. The MACD shows rising bearish volume, and the RSI is approaching oversold levels. While a breakdown is possible, we will monitor for either a continuation lower or a corrective bounce before further downside.
USD/CHF
The Franc approached the EMA200 but pulled back, suggesting strong selling pressure. The MACD supports a bearish continuation. Although the RSI hints at possible short-term relief, we remain focused on short opportunities unless the structure breaks.
USD/CAD
CAD is seeing strong bearish momentum. The MACD signals heavy sell volume, while the RSI suggests potential for a brief bounce before the downtrend resumes. We remain bearish and will look for short entries on minor rallies.
COT Reports Analysis
- AUD – WEAK (5/5)
- GBP – STRONG (3/5)
- CAD – WEAK (5/5)
- EUR – STRONG (5/5)
- JPY – STRONG (3/5)
- CHF – WEAK (5/5)
- USD – MIXED
- NZD – WEAK (4/5)
- GOLD – STRONG (5/5)
- SILVER – STRONG (4/5)
Final Thoughts
Gold remains in bullish territory, with fundamentals and price structure supporting further upside. While consolidation may continue short-term, increased geopolitical tensions and a U.S. deficit-boosting tax bill reinforce the safe-haven narrative.
With silver catching up and the Dollar weakening across the board, this environment favors precious metals and select currency pairs like GBP/USD and EUR/USD. Traders should remain patient, watching for confirmed breakouts and aligning entries with broader momentum, visit: https://axelprivatemarket.com/