Market Analysis
GOLD
GOLD prices have broken below a key level, with increased selling pressure observed as trade tensions between the U.S. and China begin to ease. According to China Central Television, U.S. officials have been reaching out to Beijing through various channels. Additionally, reports suggest the Trump administration is nearing an announcement on the first tranche of deals to roll back planned tariffs on select countries.
This signals a de-escalation in tensions between the two superpowers, with the U.S. softening its stance on tariffs. As a result, market anxiety has subsided, weakening the bullish momentum in gold. While this shift could push gold prices lower, upcoming data releases and the Federal Reserve’s decision on rate cuts may act as a counterbalance and provide support.
Technically, the MACD shows sustained selling volume, while the RSI indicates a normalization in bearish momentum. We may see a continuation to the downside, especially after a clean break below key structural levels and a clear shift in overall momentum. However, a retest of the lower boundary and the 200-day EMA remains possible before further downside continuation.
SILVER
SILVER prices are also under pressure, showing a rise in selling momentum. Interestingly, the MACD has formed a bullish crossover despite a sharp downturn in price, while the RSI reflects a gradual move lower. This divergence suggests that while volume and momentum favor a bearish move, price action is lagging in clarity. We continue to seek selling opportunities but with caution, as market reactions to incoming news could alter sentiment quickly.
DXY (U.S. Dollar Index)
The U.S. Dollar is strengthening, bolstered by reduced trade tension worries. Both MACD and RSI indicate steady gains in buying momentum. A continuation higher appears likely, particularly after breaking above the 200-day EMA. However, the 99.919 level stands as key resistance; a break above this would confirm a broader bullish shift in momentum.
GBP/USD
GBP/USD (The Pound) is exhibiting increased bearish pressure, with both MACD and RSI pointing to growing selling momentum. Notably, the RSI has turned slightly higher despite a sharp decline in price, suggesting possible short-term relief. Still, prices are now below the 200-day EMA, indicating more downside potential. A break below the next structural support could solidify the bearish trend.
AUD/USD
AUD/USD (The Aussie Dollar) is gaining strength following positive economic data. CPI q/q and y/y came in at 0.9% and 2.5%, respectively, while the Trimmed Mean CPI q/q rose by 0.7%. These figures reflect healthy economic conditions and have reduced market expectations for a rate cut in May. As a result, the Aussie is seeing upward momentum, underpinned by renewed confidence in the domestic economy.
NZD/USD
NZD/USD (The Kiwi) is facing renewed selling pressure after breaking through key support and shifting its overall trend. While some of the price rebound stemmed from easing U.S.-China tensions, domestic fundamentals remain a drag. Markets are now pricing in a 25bps rate cut at the RBNZ’s upcoming meeting, with rates expected to bottom at 2.75% by October—adding to the bearish case. This aligns with the current technical setup.
EUR/USD
EUR/USD (The Euro) is under pressure, with the MACD and RSI both showing increased bearish momentum. A break below the consolidation zone’s lower boundary confirms the shift, and we anticipate further downside continuation in the near term.
USD/JPY
USD/JPY (The Yen) is weakening against the dollar as traders await the Bank of Japan’s rate decision. The MACD signals increasing bullish volume, and the RSI supports growing buying momentum. A continued rally is likely, particularly following a break above the 200-day EMA. The key structural level at 143.442 is being tested; if broken, it may confirm a bullish breakout.
USD/CHF
USD/CHF (The Franc) continues to strengthen, tracking the broader shift in market sentiment. MACD and RSI both reflect bullish momentum and volume. With prices recovering above key levels and the 200-day EMA, we expect the uptrend to extend. Nonetheless, caution is warranted, as price volatility may increase in response to global developments.
USD/CAD
USD/CAD (The Loonie) is experiencing a pickup in bearish momentum. The MACD shows strengthening downside pressure, while the RSI confirms increased selling. With prices rejected at the 200-day EMA and falling in line with technical expectations, we anticipate further downside movement in the near term.
COT Reports Analysis
- AUD – WEAK (5/5)
- GBP – STRONG (5/5)
- CAD – STRONG (1/5)
- EUR – WEAK (1/5)
- JPY – STRONG (5/5)
- CHF – WEAK (2/5)
- USD – MIXED
- NZD – STRONG (1/5)
- GOLD – STRONG (2/5)
- SILVER – STRONG (3/5)
Final Thoughts
The market is navigating through significant shifts as geopolitical factors and economic indicators influence price action. Both GOLD and SILVER are under pressure, with technical indicators signaling continued weakness. Meanwhile, currencies like GBP/USD and NZD/USD are facing bearish trends, while the U.S. Dollar shows potential for continued strength.
It’s essential to stay informed about ongoing developments, especially trade talks and central bank decisions, as these could impact market sentiment. Adjustments to your trading strategies based on these insights will be crucial for navigating the market’s volatility.
