After North Korean troops entered the picture to support the invasion of Ukraine, President Biden reportedly reversed his stance on allowing the use of U.S. long-range missiles to strike Russia. This policy change has had several significant consequences, including heightened discussions about the potential use of nuclear weapons by Russia.
Russia’s Response
Following the policy shift, Russia responded with a ballistic missile and multiple warheads targeting eastern Ukraine. This marked a significant escalation—using a type of missile not previously deployed in the war—signaling the conflict entering a new and more dangerous phase.
Was This Last-Minute Decision Smart?
President Biden himself admitted that this policy reversal was a last-ditch effort as his term comes to an end. Analysts suggest this move was an attempt to make substantial progress before a potential Trump presidency, given Trump’s lack of support for Ukraine.
Trump’s approach focuses less on Ukraine’s victory and more on negotiating peace. This sudden escalation is seen by some as a dangerous path toward World War III, especially if nuclear weapons come into play.
Analysts’ Concerns
1. Inadequate Support for Ukraine:
- Without sustained U.S. backing, Ukraine’s ability to effectively use advanced weaponry like long-range missiles diminishes. Their soldiers lack the training to operate such systems efficiently, especially given the limited time available.
- These weapons are expensive, and Ukraine may struggle to sustain prolonged offensives without continuous U.S. financial and logistical support.
2. Unintended Consequences:
- This decision may leave Ukraine in a worse position if Russia retaliates aggressively, potentially escalating the war further.
- Analysts have called this policy reversal “reckless last-minute decision-making,” arguing that it sacrifices strategic restraint for short-term gains.
Russia’s Nuclear Threats
Russia recently announced a lower threshold for the use of nuclear weapons. The U.S. State Department has dismissed this as “irresponsible rhetoric,” but international security experts argue that this threat should not be underestimated.
Serious Implications:
- Analysts warn that Putin’s actions in Ukraine demonstrate a willingness to escalate violence.
- Previous restraint on long-range missile deployment was partly attributed to controlling global markets and oil prices. With the Biden administration nearing its end, the abrupt policy change disregards these factors, potentially destabilizing the global economy.
Was This a Strategic Error?
From my perspective, this was a major misstep.
1. Escalation Without Clear Gains:
- Russia’s response with warheads and ballistic missiles caused widespread destruction and loss of life, showing the immediate cost of this decision.
2. Increased Aggression From Russia:
- The Kremlin now claims the right to target Ukraine’s Western allies, significantly heightening the stakes. Such actions risk drawing the U.S. into direct conflict, a scenario fraught with dangers.
3. Loss of Future U.S. Support:
- With Trump poised to take office, Ukraine risks losing a key ally. Trump’s preference for ending the war, rather than ensuring Ukraine’s victory, may weaken Kyiv’s negotiating position. This could embolden Russia to delay peace talks and attempt to seize more territory.
Worst-Case Scenarios
- Russia could exploit the transition of U.S. leadership to escalate the war and solidify its gains.
- If U.S. personnel are harmed, domestic pressure for retaliation might push the U.S. further into the conflict, regardless of Trump’s policies.
Russia’s Current Actions
Russia is actively escalating its efforts:
- Domestic Measures: The Kremlin announced the suspension of New Year celebrations to redirect funds to the war effort. They have also accelerated the production of hypersonic missiles, claiming these weapons are capable of bypassing the most advanced air defenses.
- Military Escalation: Just last night, Russia launched over 100 glide bombs on Ukraine, signaling readiness for a more lethal phase of the war.
- Mercenary Recruitment: Reports indicate hundreds of Yemeni fighters have been recruited, lured by promises of high wages and Russian citizenship. This reinforces Russia’s ground invasion capabilities.
Blaming the West
Russia has placed the blame squarely on the West, accusing it of enabling Ukraine to strike Russian soil. Putin claims that what began as a regional conflict has now acquired global dimensions, framing recent events as Western-provoked escalation.
Ukraine’s Response:
Kyiv has convened its defense cabinet, requesting assistance to develop air defense systems capable of countering advanced Russian weaponry.
How Will This End?
Analysts predict the following outcomes:
- Trump may pressure allies and Ukraine into a peace deal requiring territorial concessions, coupled with an end to Western support.
- A temporary de-escalation might occur, but Ukraine’s losses, both in territory and lives, could be substantial.
- Russia might intensify its offensives before January, aiming to secure maximum gains before Trump’s term begins.
From my perspective, the most dangerous possibility is that recent escalations provide a pretext for continued U.S. involvement, especially if American citizens or soldiers are harmed. Public pressure for retaliation could lock the U.S. into further conflict, even under a leadership change.
