In recent days, Syria has become the focal point of global headlines, drawing the attention of major powers like the U.S. and Israel. An apparent rebellion has risen against the government, creating a storm of developments that cannot be ignored. This situation has massive implications for currency trading approaches as global tensions escalate.
Meanwhile, over 170 people have been killed in Sudan over the past two days as the civil war escalates, with both sides showing little regard for civilian casualties.
Why is the U.S. Involved?
ISIS remains at the heart of this conflict, raising concerns about its potential resurgence. Washington has issued warnings, emphasizing that the U.S. is determined to prevent ISIS from regaining strength or establishing safe havens. Former President Donald Trump has expressed his stance, stating, “This is not our fight.” Despite this, the U.S. Department of Defense asserts that its mission in Syria is to defeat ISIS. Although the group has been significantly weakened, the U.S. remains concerned.
During its peak, ISIS controlled large swathes of Syria and Iraq, declaring an Islamic caliphate that drew international intervention and intense fighting. By 2019, the caliphate collapsed, and ISIS was defeated but not eradicated. Until July of this year, the U.S. Central Command reported that approximately 2,500 ISIS fighters remain active across Iraq and Syria, primarily in northern and western Syria and near the Iraqi border.
The Current Conflict
Last week, three groups were reported to be fighting in Syria: the rebels, Assad’s government forces, and ISIS. Taking advantage of the situation, ISIS has reportedly killed at least 54 of Assad’s soldiers.
Why is this Significant for the U.S.?
A resurgence of ISIS could pose a significant threat, potentially forcing the U.S. to open another front in its fight against terrorism—a situation that could disrupt the global order the Trump administration seeks to solidify. The repercussions of such conflict could impact forex market analysis, particularly in volatile times of geopolitical tension.
The Impact on Iran
The turmoil in Syria directly impacts Iran, as Assad’s regime remains its only ally in the region. The inability to defend Assad represents a significant blow to Iran, especially as its proxies—Hezbollah, Hamas, and others—are increasingly weakened. Iran has long relied on Syria as a key route for delivering weapons to Lebanon to support its proxies. However, Iran’s ability to assist Assad has been constrained by its own struggles, including ongoing tensions with Israel.
Iran finds itself at its weakest point since the establishment of its regime, plagued by internal economic strife and external setbacks. This desperation may push Iran toward nuclear escalation, a concern echoed by the International Atomic Energy Agency, which recently raised alarms about Iran’s stockpiling of nuclear materials.
Yemen and Israel’s Role
Iran’s remaining proxy, the Houthis in Yemen, has also escalated tensions, recently launching drones into central Israel, with one striking a residential area. Israel, meanwhile, has taken advantage of the instability in Syria. In the past 48 hours, it has conducted over 480 airstrikes, claiming to have destroyed 80% of Syria’s military capabilities. Additionally, the Israeli navy has decimated Syria’s fleet, leaving it largely incapacitated.
Prime Minister Netanyahu has stated that these operations aim to eliminate Iran’s military presence in Syria, not to interfere with Syria’s internal politics. Netanyahu has also indicated a willingness to establish relations with Syria’s new regime but warned that Israel would respond forcefully if the new leadership re-establishes ties with Iran.
Some Arab nations have accused Israel of exploiting Syria’s turmoil to seize territory, claiming these actions violate Syrian sovereignty. Israel’s movement into the buffer zone of the Golan Heights, reaching areas 40 kilometers from Damascus, has been described as temporary. However, the rebels might see this as a potential threat, especially given Netanyahu’s repeated statements about reshaping West Asia and his open credit-taking for Assad’s removal.
Iran’s Response and Potential Escalation
Iran’s Supreme Leader, breaking his silence, has accused the U.S. and Israel of orchestrating Assad’s removal, suggesting this is part of a broader plot. Such accusations could signal the beginning of a more dangerous phase of conflict, with ripple effects felt across global markets.
What Does This Mean for the Global Stage?
There are growing fears that 2025 could bring further escalation. Recent developments, including Israel’s assertive actions and the continued instability in the region, could draw in additional players such as Russia and China, further complicating the situation. In the face of these global tensions, forex trading platforms could see a surge in volatility, urging traders to adapt their day trading tactics and currency trading approaches.
